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How would the Dowel/Centex development affect Harmony Township?
"River Walk" would be the first major subdivision in Harmony Township, and would bring dramatic changes affecting the land and its residents in numerous ways. Here are some impacts for which information is available:
Population - In the twenty year period from the 1980 census to the 2000 census, Harmony Township's population grew by 5.3%. Centex forecasts that "River Walk" will have 1067 residents, increasing the township population by more than 38% in about three years. To help understand how big thirty-eight percent is, consider that a 150 pound person whose weight increased by 38% would end up at 207 pounds.
Township School - Centex predicts 235 students from "River Walk" will be of age to attend the Harmony Township School by 2007, and that the resulting influx of students (a 66% increase in enrollment!) will require 9 new classrooms beyond those presently in use. Our own analysis indicates one or two more will be needed. The Township School has some rooms not presently used as classrooms for Township students, but not enough: by the time "River Walk" is completed, between 5 and 9 classrooms will be needed beyond those available in the present School building. It is not clear whether it is feasible to expand the existing facility by this amount.
No plan for handling such school expansion has yet been made public. Alternatives include: sending some of the Township students to other municipalities; expanding the existing Township School, if feasible; and building a new School facility on a different site. Obviously, the effects could be enormous.
Property Taxes - This development would incur costs to the Township much greater than the taxes the development would pay in at our present tax rates, so the Township would need to increase tax rates in order to balance the budget.
Centex forecasts that during the three fiscal years from the start of construction to full occupancy, the cost to Harmony Township of educating children living at "River Walk" will on average be about one million dollars per year more than the property taxes paid by the development at present tax rates. The actual shortfall during this period would certainly far exceed this projection.
Centex forecasts that by the time the development is fully occupied, the cost to Harmony Township of educating students from "River Walk" will be $3,444,003 per year. The new development would (at Harmony's present tax rate) pay just over $1,000,000 annually to the Township in real estate taxes, leaving a deficit of more than $2,300,000 per year which the Township must fund by increasing tax rates.
We estimate that by the time "River Walk" is fully occupied, in order to cover the cost of educating students from this single development, Harmony Township real estate taxes will have to increase by about $377 per year per hundred thousand dollars of valuation, compared to the present tax rate. For example, a property assessed at one hundred and eighty thousand dollars would have about $679 per year of additional real estate tax. Township residents would pay about 21% more in real estate taxes than we do today.
Road Traffic - Centex forecasts about 3000 car trips per day into or out of "River Walk." Traffic volumes on River Road and Garrison Road will be far greater than they are today. Overall, traffic from the development will increase flows on Route 519 during rush hours by about 15%. At the height of morning rush hour, traffic flowing south on 519 between Garrison Road and the junction of Route 519 with Uniontown Road will increase about 30% over what we see today.
Environment - The Harmony Township and Warren County Environmental Commissions have expressed serious concerns about how the on-site sewage treatment plant (part of the Centex plan for "River Walk") would affect the limestone and water wells in the area. Click to see a list of questions from the Township Environmental Commission that have not yet been answered by Centex. Click here for some of the environmental concerns that have come up in the Land Use Board proceedings (starts at 8th paragraph, where "Riverwalk" is mentioned).
Notes:
20 year population growth: Calculated from http://www.co.warren.nj.us/census2004directory.pdf: 2729/2592=1.05285.
1067 residents: Community Impact Statement Feb. 2003, page 5 (This is a document submitted by Centex to the Land Use Board, as required by law.)
38% population increase: This is greater than 38% by 2007, even allowing for township growth projected without Centex. See http://www.co.warren.nj.us/population_projections.html for growth projections.
235 students: From Community Impact Statement Feb. 2003 page 9 Table 5, add the totals of new students.
66% increase in enrollment: The 2003-2004 enrollment at the Township School is 313 students, with an expected increase (without "River Walk") of 20 to 25 students (source: Vicki Pede, Harmony Township School administrator). Using the Community Impact Statement (page 7) assumption that 5% of school-age children will be privately or home schooled, 95% of the 235 children in the K-8 age range, or 223 children, will be added to the Township School enrollment by "River Walk". If the enrollment without "River Walk" will be 338 in 2008 (313+25), the increase is 223/338 = 0.6597.
9 additional classrooms: From Community Impact Statement Feb. 2003 page 9 Table 5, "Total Classrooms", and page 8 "total shortage of nine".
one million dollars per year: From testimony before the Land Use Board.
actual shortfall: By adding figures from the Community Impact Statement Feb. 2003 (Table 4, page 6) the total cost of educating River Walk students for 2005-2007 is $6,526,962; we estimate that the development's tax contribution at current rates would be $3,156,816 for this same period if the development were at full value the first year, certainly not reasonable; even so, the shortfall is $3,370,146, or an average of $1,123,382 per year. This amount does not include the cost of expanding the Harmony Township School facilities (for example, by new construction) to accommodate at least nine new classrooms.
$3,444,003 per year: Community Impact Statement Feb. 2003, page 6, Table 4. The total in this table ($3,106,008 per year) also quoted on page 7 reflects a clerical error: when the figure of 10,505 is replaced with the correct amount for new high school students in 2006, the addition results in $3,444,003.
just over $1,000,000: Rich Motyka, the Township's tax assessor, projected $1,052,272.
$377 per year: From Rich Motyka, the present assessment for Harmony in toto is about $536,000,000, and "River Walk" would add $97,522,900 of assessed value, for a new total of $633,522,900, or 6335.2 X $100K. Divide the deficit by $100K units, to get $377.53 per $100K.
21%: The present rate (including county tax) is 1.8%, or $1800 per $100K; 377/1800=0.209.
3000 car trips: From testimony before the Land Use Board; using figures from the 7th Edition of the Trip Generation Manual from the Institute of Transportation Engineers, "River Walk" would be expected to generate more than 3150 trips per weekday. One place to find the Manual figures: http://www.northbrunswickonline.com/Pulda_traffic_Assessment.pdf, see Table I, "24-Hour" columns.
15% and 30% flow increases: From testimony before the Land Use Board and the Traffic Report submitted by Centex.